May
17
Price May Not be as Negotiable as You Think
Posted by David Welch under Florida, Market, Orlando, Prices
“How low can I offer?” I hear this question all the time from buyers, and I pretty much have the same repsonse every time. “It depends.” What may appear to be a lowball offer is actually a fair market value for the property. That does not mean the seller is going to view it that way. This difference of opinion about the value of a property is why so many homes do not sell. When the seller’s price is in line with the market’s opinion of value, the property will likely sell and close to the asking price.
If you don’t believe me, consider this. I looked at sales in Orange County Florida for each of the last eight years, going back to the insane market of 2005. Specifically, what I was looking at was the average and median percentage of sales price to list price ratio.
| Year | Sales | Avg SP/LP | Median SP/LP |
| 2005 | 20k | 99% | 100% |
| 2006 | 17k | 98% | 99% |
| 2007 | 10k | 96% | 97% |
| 2008 | 9k | 95% | 96% |
| 2009 | 16k | 94% |
98% |
| 2010 | 19k | 98% | 99% |
| 2011 | 18k | 97% | 98% |
| 2012 q1 | 4k | 97% | 98% |
Rising prices, declining prices, climbing sales and declining sales markets are all included in this eight year span. Notice though, that the average sales price to list price percentage ranged from a low of 94% to a high of 99%, and the median sales price to list price percentage ranged from 96% to 100%. These numbers are based on the last list price of the sold homes, so many of the sellers did have to reduce their prices to get to the market value. Once a property is at the market value, there really is not a lot of negotiating that goes on with respect to the price regardless of the type of market we are in.
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May
16
Orlando Real Estate Statistics April 2012 from Realtor.com
Posted by David Welch under Florida, For Buyers, For Sellers, Market, Orlando
April 2012 real estate search results are in and Orlando, FL was the #10 most searched market in the country in April 2012, based on data released today by Realtor.com, the #1 homes for sale real estate web site.
Median list prices for homes in Orlando, FL hit $159,900 in April 2012, a 1.20% increase from one year ago this month, and 3.16% increase from March 2012. The national median list price in April 2012 was $191,211, a -0.35% decrease compared to April 2011.
Active for sale inventory of homes in Orlando, FL in April 2012 leveled out at 9,861, a -34.43% decrease compared to April 2011. National inventory counts for April 2012 were 1,840,803, a -18.85% decrease as compared to a year ago.
The median age of inventory in Orlando, FL in April was 66 days, a 0.00% increase compared to March 2012. Nationally, the median age of inventory was 84 days, a -5.62% decrease compared to March.
For details on all 146 MSAs monitored by Realtor.com in April 2012, click here:
http://www.realtor.com/data-portal/Real-Estate-Statistics.aspx
Contact us if you’re interested in a custom report detailing real estate trend data by county or zip code.
Each month, Realtor.com surveys up to 250 Metro Service Areas (MSA) throughout the nation and monitors real estate trends including consumer search behavior, median list prices on for sale homes, active inventory counts and median age of inventory. The information is released to local markets to help consumers and real estate professionals as they work together to successfully navigate their local market.
According to Realtor.com, the top 10 most searched real estate markets, identified as MSAs, in the United States in April 2012 include:
Chicago, IL 1st
Detroit, MI 2rd
Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA 3rd
Philadelphia, PA 4th
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 5th
Atlanta, GA 6th
Dallas, TX 7th
Phoenix-Mesa, AZ 8th
Las Vegas, NV 9th
Orlando, FL 10th
In addition, the top most searched real estate markets in Florida in April 2012, and the national searched rank included:
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL #5
Orlando, FL #10
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, FL #14
Fort Lauderdale, FL #17
Miami, FL #20
Sarasota-Bradenton, FL #38
Fort Myers-Cape Coral, FL #40
Jacksonville, FL #44
Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay, FL #51
Fort Pierce-Port St. Lucie, FL #52
Daytona Beach, FL #56
Naples, FL #62
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL #73
Pensacola, FL #113
Tallahassee, FL #117
Ocala, FL #130
Gainesville, FL #133
Punta Gorda, FL #138
Realtor.com, the #1 homes-for-sale site, displays more than four million for sale and for rent property listings fed directly to the site for free by more than 850 multiple listing services (MLS) across the nation. More than 80 percent of all listings on Realtor.com are updated every 15 minutes with important information including price changes, sold data and property status changes, with the remaining properties updated every one to 24 hours. All homes tracked in these monthly reports are single family homes, condominiums, co-ops and townhomes.
For more information or commentary on local market trends, please contact:
Julie.Reynolds@move.com
Jennifer.DuBois@move.com
Jill.Kipnis@move.com
Candice.Cerro@move.com
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May
8
Orlando Real Estate Statistics April 2012
Posted by David Welch under Florida, General Information, Market, Orlando
Ok, I know I am really behind, but I have been working pretty much seven days a week for about three weeks now. The number of homes available for sale continues to drop. There are 7,683 homes listed as available by Orlando Realtors right now. That is a 32.8% drop from last year’s 11,444. Of the homes still available 840 or 10.9% are REO, 1,925 or 25.1% are short sales and 4,918 or 64.0% are equity sales. April, May and June are typically very busy months for new listings, but we continue to see the number of active properties decline. Based upon last month’s sales, there is only a 3.16 month supply of homes available. We usually consider a six month supply to be a balanced market.
The number of homes with contracts has been climbing, and currently there are 11,084 homes with contracts pending. Of those, 1,386 or 12.5% are REO, 7,615 or 68.7% are short sales and 2,083 or 18.8% are equity sales. There were 2,431 closed sales last month with a median sales price of $115,000 marking the tenth month in a row of year over year increases. The number of sales was slightly lower the same month a year ago, but the median price jumped 10.3% from $104,260.
Of the homes that sold last month, 645 or 26.5% were REO, 713 or 29.3% were short sales and 1,073 or 44.1% were equity sales. The 713 short sales represented 9.4% of the pending short sales. REO median sales price was $80,000, short sale median sales price was $95,000 and equity sales median price wa $159,900. Cash sale continue to make up the majority of the closings. 52.9% or 1,286 cash deals closed with a median sales price of $75,000, and 1,145 or 47.1% of the sales closed with financing with a median price of $156,900.
David Welch Real Estate Optimist, Orlando Real Estate, Search for Homes
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The number of homes for sale in Orlando has been on a steady decline, and currently represents just a little over 3 months supply of homes available for sale. Why is the inventory so low, and where is the next “wave” of foreclosures and distressed properties? I have spoken with a few different local reporters, and these are the questions they ask me. I have tried to explain the answer is not a simple one. There are a number of factors that are effecting our market, and have an impact on the number of homes available for sale. Here is my what-if analysis of our situation, and the big issues effecting our inventory. The numbers are real, but I have ignored a few complicating issues. You can spot the complications in “( ).”
First, there was a big sales boom that ran prices up from 2004 through the price peak in October 2006. Second, there was a bust that occurred when the market ran out of buyers running from 2006 through February of 2011. The combination of the big run up in prices and the corresponding decline which finally bottomed out last year left about 107,000 homes worth less than the price for which they sold. About 14,000 of those homes sold for cash, so the sellers should not be “upside down” on a mortgage, but they have an asset worth less than they paid for it. That leaves about 93,000 homes that may be worth less than the notes that are owed. (Obviously, some homeowners also took out equity lines, and cashed out with refinancing, but I don’t have those numbers.)
Since January of 2007 we have closed nearly 63,000 distressed sales which leaves about 30,000 properties that may be “upside down”, assuming these distress sales were ”upside down” properties. (Another complicating factor is that a number of new homes have sold that may not be accounted for on our MLS, which is where I observed these sales numbers.) Keep in mind that not all of these represent distress situations. These are just the potential homes that may be worth less than the outstanding loans against them.
When I looked at foreclosure filings for Orange County and compared those properties against properties that had already sold, were currently under contract or available for sale; there were only 5,500 homes left unaccounted (shadow inventory.) Factoring in the other counties in our MSA, there may be as many as 10,000 homes that have the potential of being distressed sales. These may or may not be accounted for in the 30,000 that are “upside down.”
The bottom line is that we have more homes going under contract each month than we are putting on the market. The number of listings expiring has actually gone down too, as appropriately priced properties are getting snatched up. The decline in inventory, and the strong sales numbers have given us nine months in a row of year over year price increases. As the prices continue to rise, there are fewer homes “upside down” in the market. At some point, the prices will rise enough to attract more sellers into the market, bringing the market back into equillibrium.
David Welch Real Estate Optimist, Orlando Real Estate, Search for Homes
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Apr
17
Orlando Real Estate Statistics March 2012 from Realtor.com
Posted by David Welch under Florida, General Information, Market, Orlando
March 2012 real estate search results are in and Orlando, FL was the #10 most searched market in the country in March 2012, based on data released today by Realtor.com, the #1 homes for sale real estate web site.
Median list prices for homes in Orlando, FL hit $155,000 in March 2012, a 3.33% increase from one year ago this month, and 0.32% increase from February 2012. The national median list price in March 2012 was $189,900, a 5.56% increase compared to March 2011.
Active for sale inventory of homes in Orlando, FL in March 2012 leveled out at 10,284, a -39.00% decrease compared to March 2011. National inventory counts for March 2012 were 1,804,040, a -21.48% decrease as compared to a year ago.
The median age of inventory in Orlando, FL in March was 66 days, a -12.00% decrease compared to February 2012. Nationally, the median age of inventory was 89 days, a -19.82% decrease compared to February.
For details on all 146 MSAs monitored by Realtor.com in March 2012, click here:
http://www.realtor.com/data-portal/Real-Estate-Statistics.aspx
Contact us if you’re interested in a custom report detailing real estate trend data by county orzip code.
Each month, Realtor.com surveys up to 250 Metro Service Areas (MSA) throughout the nation and monitors real estate trends including consumer search behavior, median list prices on for sale homes, active inventory counts and median age of inventory. The information is released to local markets to help consumers and real estate professionals as they work together to successfully navigate their local market.
According to Realtor.com, the top 10 most searched real estate markets, identified as MSAs, in the United States in March 2012 include:
Chicago, IL 1st
Detroit, MI 2rd
Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA 3rd
Philadelphia, PA 4th
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 5th
Phoenix-Mesa, AZ 6th
Atlanta, GA 7th
Dallas, TX 8th
Las Vegas, NV 9th
Orlando, FL 10th
In addition, the top most searched real estate markets in Florida in March 2012, and the national searched rank included:
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL #5
Orlando, FL #10
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, FL #14
Fort Lauderdale, FL #17
Miami, FL #18
Sarasota-Bradenton, FL #37
Fort Myers-Cape Coral, FL #38
Jacksonville, FL #44
Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay, FL #50
Fort Pierce-Port St. Lucie, FL #51
Naples, FL #56
Daytona Beach, FL #57
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL #68
Pensacola, FL #111
Tallahassee, FL #118
Ocala, FL #128
Punta Gorda, FL #134
Gainesville, FL #136
Realtor.com, the #1 homes-for-sale site, displays more than four million for sale and for rent property listings fed directly to the site for free by more than 850 multiple listing services (MLS) across the nation. More than 80 percent of all listings on Realtor.com are updated every 15 minutes with important information including price changes, sold data and property status changes, with the remaining properties updated every one to 24 hours. All homes tracked in these monthly reports are single family homes, condominiums, co-ops and townhomes.
For more information or commentary on local market trends, please contact:
Julie.Reynolds@move.com
Jennifer.DuBois@move.com
Jill.Kipnis@move.com
Candice.Cerro@move.com
Leave a Reply
Supply and demand still work like they always have, but they are effected by factors that may not always seem apparent. The concept of elasticity of demand, looks at a buyers willingness to stretch to pay a higher price. Back in 2005 demand was extremely elastic, meaning that even though prices were climbing higher by the month, buyers were still willing to buy. Today, we see that elasticity may not be quite what it was back then. Prices are climbing here in Orlando, but not as steeply as you might expect given the decline in inventory. Last month’s median price was $115,000 which was up 12.7% year over year. The number of homes available for sale has dropped over 37.2% from last year’s 12,549 to only 7,875 as of last month. There is only a little over a three month supply of homes available right now.
I have written before that supply is easy to figure out. Supply is just a number, such as 7,850 which is the number of homes currently available for sale listed by Orlando Realtors. Yes, you can break down that number a lot of different ways. There are so many REO’s, so many short sales, so many single family homes and so many condos, but when you put them back together there are still the same number of properties for sale. Demand is a little tougher to measure. You can count the number of sales last month, which was 2,437 and say that was the demand for real estate in Orlando in March 2012. Hold on though, because there were over 3,800 new contracts written last month, so is that the true measure of demand? Wait, there’s more. I just put a property on the market last week that received nine offers, and only one of those became a contract. If I recall, my last three listings received a total of 15 offers, but only three count as contracts. So, are the offers a better measure of demand? But wait, there’s more still. Lending is very tight, and I speak with people almost every week that desperately wish to buy, but cannot obtain financing. You have to factor that demand into the equation some how too.
David Welch Real Estate Optimist, Orlando Real Estate, Search for Homes
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Apr
11
When Was the Bottom of the Orlando Real Estate Market
Posted by David Welch under Florida, For Buyers, For Realty Professionals, For Sellers, Market, Orlando
Please take note of the title. The key word is “was.” There are a lot of experts out there still prediciting declines in the national real estate market this year. There is no national real estate market. Real estate is local, and each local market is interdependently connected to the other local markets. Each market is influenced most by its own local economic situation though. Here in Orlando there have been a number of economic influences positively effecting our market. Improving tourism, the new medical city and the coming commuter rail system are a few of the good things going on in The City Beautiful.
So, back to my original question in the title of this post. When was the bottom of the Orlando real estate market? That depends on how you define the bottom. There are a few different measures we can look at, and I will suggest my pick.
First, you could define the bottom by the number of sales. If that is the measure 2008 was the slowest sales pace since the market changed direction in 2006. January of 2008 was the slowest month I can recall in forever with only 813 closed sales. While that was the slowest month, I have a hard time calling that the bottom when the average price was still north of $300,000 that month.
Second, price is an obvious measure of the bottom. Which measure of price do we look at though? The most commonly report measure of real estate prices is median to take out the effect that very large sales can have on the average. We actually had two months last year where the median price hit rock bottom. January and February of 2011 both marked a median price of only $95,000. The other measure of central tendancy is average. Interestingly, the lowest average price we have had was also recorded in February of last year at $133,000.
Finally, I thought about total sales volume. For this one, I went back to 2007 and multiplied the total number of sales each month and the average sales price to come up with the total sales volume. I discovered the absolute lowest sales volume we have seen here in Orlando occured January of 2009. There were a pawltry 1,050 sales at an average price of $187,200. This accounted for a sales volume of $196.5 million.
Ultimately, price is the number one concern for sellers and buyers alike, so my pick is February 2011. Even though the number of sales is an important factor, sales are strongly influenced by price. Since February of 2011 saw both the low point for median and average price, I am calling that the bottom. Prices have been on the mend since then, and we have had nine months of year over year price increases. At the same time our inventory has declined significantly, so I don’t see this trend changing for the time being.
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The continuing storyline of 2012 is the declining inventory of homes available for sale. Compared to March of 2011 the number of homes currently available for sale has declined 37.2%. There are 7,875 homes listed as available by Orlando Realtors. Of those still active, 802 or 10.2% are REO, 2,078 or 26.4% are short sales and 4,995 or 63.4% are equity sales. While the active inventory has been dropping, the number of homes with contracts pending has been on the rise. There are 10,687 homes with contracts on them compared to 9,933 a year ago accounting for a 7.6% increase. Of the homes with contracts, 1,303 or 12.2% are REO, 7,500 or 70.2% are short sales and 1,884 or 17.6% are equity sales.
The number of sales is down slightly from a year ago. There were 2,437 closed sales last month which is 4.3% lower than the 2,546 a year ago. The median price of all sales is way up though. Last year the median sales price in March was $102,000 which jumped 12.6% this year to $114,900. Of the homes sold this year 655 or 26.9% were REO with a median sales price of $77,900. Another 802 or 32.9% of the sales were short sales with a median sales price of an even $100,000. The remaining 980 or 40.2% or the sales were traditional equity sales with a median sales price of $159,500. The 802 short sales that closed represent 10.7% of the short sales with contracts pending. With the strong sales and declining number of homes for sale the current months supply of homes has dropped from 4.9 a year ago to only 3.2 as of last month. Generally, six months is considered a balanced market. I listed a $220,000 home on the market Saturday and sold it Sunday. I listed a $75,000 condo yesterday and have two offers today, and I am expecting a third.
Cash deals continue to make up the majority of our sales. Yes, you read that right. We are into our third year of “cash sale.” Last month 1,298 sales or 53.2% closed as all cash deals with a median sales price of $75,000. The remaining 1,139 or 46.7% were closed with some form of financing with a median sales price of $155,000.
David Welch Real Estate Optimist, Orlando Real Estate, Search for Homes
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Apr
2
Fewer Houses for Sale in Orlando
Posted by David Welch under Florida, For Buyers, For Sellers, Market, Orlando, Prices
Recently, I was interviewed by Florida Trend magazine about the Orlando real estate market. They asked me what the big story for 2012 was going to be, and I told them the declining inventory. At the beginning of the year we had over 9,000 homes available for sale which was down from 16,000 at the beginning of 2011. The decline has continued with fewer than 7,900 homes available as of today (April 2nd). I report the inventory numbers nearly every day on http://www.RealEstateOptimist.com, and you can actually watch the number of homes available drop. The number of pending sales is over 10,700. If the current pace of inventory decline continues we could dip below 7,000 homes for sale by Summer.
Demand for homes continues to be pretty strong too. I am looking for Orlando Realtors to close 2,300 homes this month, which may not set any records, but it is a strong showing. Keep in mind, at that pace, we only have 3.4 months of inventory available for sale. This has put some upward pressure on prices. Our median price a year ago in March was $102,000, and this March we will post a median sales price near $115,000. That is better than a 12.5% increase. The lower inventory is allowing sellers to sell their homes for a little more than they might have received a year or two ago, but nothing like the frenzy of 2005. We are seeing faster sales, and frequently multiple offer situations for good homes at fair prices. I listed a home in the MLS this past weekend on Saturday. We had our first showing four hours later, and an offer within 27 hours. We are under contract over one weekend, and the sellers are happy with what they were able to get for their house. Now we can put a contract on a new home to be built, because they could not find a resale they liked where they are moving. So, the low inventory should be good for builders too.
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Mar
15
Orlando Real Estate Statistics from Realtor.com February 2012
Posted by David Welch under Florida, For Buyers, For Realty Professionals, For Sellers, Market, Orlando
February 2012 real estate search results are in and Orlando, FL was the #9 most searched market in the country in February 2012, based on data released today by Realtor.com, the #1 homes for sale real estate web site.
Median list prices for homes in Orlando, FL hit $154,500 in February 2012, a 3.00% increase from one year ago this month, and -0.32% decrease from January 2012. The national median list price in February 2012 was $188,000, a 6.82% increase compared to February 2011.
Active for sale inventory of homes in Orlando, FL in February 2012 leveled out at 10,738, a -40.76% decrease compared to February 2011. National inventory counts for February 2012 were 1,778,237, a -22.02% decrease as compared to a year ago.
The median age of inventory in Orlando, FL in February was 75 days, a -7.41% decrease compared to January 2012. Nationally, the median age of inventory was 111 days, a -6.72% decrease compared to January.
For details on all 146 MSAs monitored by Realtor.com in February 2012, click here:
http://www.realtor.com/data-portal/Real-Estate-Statistics.aspx
Contact us if you’re interested in a custom report detailing real estate trend data by countyor zip code.
Each month, Realtor.com surveys up to 250 Metro Service Areas (MSA) throughout the nation and monitors real estate trends including consumer search behavior, median list prices on for sale homes, active inventory counts and median age of inventory. The information is released to local markets to help consumers and real estate professionals as they work together to successfully navigate their local market.
According to Realtor.com, the top 10 most searched real estate markets, identified as MSAs, in the United States in February 2012 include:
Chicago, IL 1st
Detroit, MI 2rd
Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA 3rd
Philadelphia, PA 4th
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 5th
Phoenix-Mesa, AZ 6th
Atlanta, GA 7th
Dallas, TX 8th
Orlando, FL 9th
Las Vegas, NV 10th
In addition, the top most searched real estate markets in Florida in February 2012, and the national searched rank included:
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL #5
Orlando, FL #9
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, FL #12
Fort Lauderdale, FL #17
Miami, FL #18
Fort Myers-Cape Coral, FL #31
Sarasota-Bradenton, FL #37
Jacksonville, FL #44
Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay, FL #48
Fort Pierce-Port St. Lucie, FL #50
Naples, FL #53
Daytona Beach, FL #54
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL #63
Pensacola, FL #104
Tallahassee, FL #116
Ocala, FL #128
Punta Gorda, FL #130
Gainesville, FL #132
Realtor.com is the most searched real estate web site today, and displays more than four million for sale and for rent property listings fed directly to the site for free by more than 933 multiple listing services (MLS) across the nation. More than 75 percent of all listings on Realtor.com are updated every 15 minutes with important information including price changes, sold data and property status changes, with the remaining properties updated every one to 24 hours. All homes tracked in these monthly reports are single family homes, condominiums, co-ops and townhomes.
For more information or commentary on local market trends, please contact:
Julie.Reynolds@move.com
Jennifer.DuBois@move.com
Jill.Kipnis@move.com
Candice.Cerro@move.com
Move@accesspr.com
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