There are 8,014 homes for sale listed by Orlando Realtors and 8,629 homes listed as contract pending. Of the homes still available for sale, 1,078 are foreclosures and 961 are short sales. Of the homes with contracts pending, 1,161 are foreclosures and 4,749 are short sales.
Early Orlando real estate sales statistics for August: 2,316 closed sales with a median sales price of $153,000. Sales are definitely still strong, but prices softened a bit. I am definitely seeing another turn in our market with inventory climbing past 8,000. Pay attention to this.
There are 7,868 homes for sale listed by Orlando Realtors and 8,805 homes listed as contract pending. Of the homes still available for sale, 1,060 are foreclosures and 941 are short sales. Of the homes with contracts pending, 1,193 are foreclosures and 4,814 are short sales.
Too early Orlando real estate sales statistics for August: 1,802 closed sales with a median sales price of $152,000. Sales and prices up from a year ago, but down from July.
There are 7,834 homes for sale listed by Orlando Realtors and 8,815 homes listed as contract pending. Of the homes still available for sale, 1,057 are foreclosures and 939 are short sales. Of the homes with contracts pending, 1,192 are foreclosures and 4,833 are short sales.
Way too early Orlando real estate sales statistics for August: 1,614 closed sales with a median sales price of $151,000. Looks like the closing pace may have slowed down a bit with school starting last week.
There are 7,786 homes for sale listed by Orlando Realtors and 8,829 homes listed as contract pending. Of the homes still available for sale, 1,052 are foreclosures and 919 are short sales. Of the homes with contracts pending, 1,169 are foreclosures and 4,875 are short sales.
Way too early Orlando real estate sales statistics for August: 1196 closed sales with a median sales price of $152,000. Sales are looking really strong for August, but prices are probably going to be a bit lower.
As promised on my Orlando real estate facebook page yesterday, here are the latest Orlando real estate statistics for July. Inventory continues to climb, and for the first time in a long time the active listings are higher than a year ago. We have 7,556 homes listed as active compared with 7,446 in July 2012. We have had more than two months of steady increases in inventory, but our months supply of homes still stands at only 2.6 based on last month’s sales. Of the homes listed active 961 or 12.7% are REO, 894 or 11.8% are short sales and 5,701 or 75.4% are equity sales. REO and equity sales have both increased while short sales are about half as plentiful as they were a year ago.
Pending sales continue to decline lead by the decline in short sales under contract. There are 8,900 homes listed as having a contract pending. Of those, 1,129 or 12.7% are REO, 5,015 or 56.3% are short sales and 2,756 or 31.0% are equity sales. A year ago there were nearly 7,500 short sales pending and only 2,100 equity sales under contract. As prices increase short sales are beginning to fade while equity sales grow.
Sales in July were way up compared to June and compared to a year ago. There were 2,911 closed sales posted in July which is up more than 21% compared to a year ago and nearly 12% higher than June’s 2,603 closed sales. The median sales price for July was also higher closing at $154,000. That is up more than 1% compared to June and more than 23% compared to the $124,900 registered a year ago. Of the closed sales last month, 536 or 18.4% were REO with a median price of $90,000, 512 or 17.6% were short sales with a median price of $120,000 and 1,863 or 64% were equity sales with a median price of $185,000. REO and equity sales prices were down compared with June, but short sale prices were up. A greater percentage of sales were equity sales helping to pull overall prices up. The closed short sales represent 10.2% of the pending short sales.
Last month I questioned if the investors were starting to back off, because of higher prices. Maybe the hedge fund managers were just on vacation. Although cash sales were less than 50% of the total for just the second time in about four years, they did go up by over 150 compared to June. There were 1,443 or 49.6% of the closed sales with a median price of $105,000 purchased with all cash. The remaining 1,468 or 50.4% with a median price of $200,000 purchased with some type of financing.
Here is a quick snapshot of the Orlando real estate inventory.
|List Price||Inventory||Mkt %|
The median list price is $210,000 while the average list price is $360,475. Compare that with the sales that posted so far for last month, and there is a pretty big difference between what is actually selling. The median list price of last month’s sales was $159,500 and the median sales price was $155,000 That is a $55,000 gap between the median list price and the median sales price. The average list price of last month’s closed sales was $201,558 with an average sales price of $194,861. That is more than a $165,000 gap between average list price and average sales price.
by David Welch
I am going to be meeting with the Orlando Regional Realtor Association Young Professionals Network this afternoon as part of their Summer Success Series. Today, we will be discussing search engine optimization (SEO). I will be speaking about website optimization: content, social media, pay-per-click, promotion and advertising. Some of the areas being covered will be custom -vs- canned websites; blogging, facebook, twitter, internet and “traditional” marketing as well as analytics.
If you read my blog post http://davidwelch.featuredblog.com/?p=851 a few days ago, you saw the inventory is creeping up, prices are going up, but sales were down a bit. Over the last few years, investors have been pumping billions in cash into the Orlando real estate market. Over 53% of our sales have been cash transactions for nearly 3.5 years. Last month, that percentage dropped just below 50%. The total number of cash sales dropped from over 1,500 in May to just over 1,200 in June. I think we are entering a market where prices are getting a bit high for the investors to make the returns they have been getting.
Supply and demand would suggest that as prices get higher the demand curve will slide down and the supply curve will shift up. One month does not make a trend, but it appears that is exactly what started to happen last month. So far this month sales look to be a bit stronger than June and prices are also a bit higher, so maybe investors took a breather. Interest rate movement also factors in as a potential impediment to many home buyers. There are a number of good things going on in the Central Florida economy that could help pick up the slack. I just cannot tell yet if home buyer demand will fill the void that may be created by investors withdrawing. It is also possible investors may be willing to accept a slightly lower return if they see continued appreciation. We may also see a pull back on prices that are up over 20% compared to a year ago. Keep checking my blog for statistics updates.
The king is dead, long live the king. Cash has been king in Orlando real estate for about the last 3.5 years. Last month for the first time in ages, financed sales outpaced cash deals. Not only has the percentage of cash sales declined, the actual number of cash sales dropped quite a bit. That is probably contributing to the steady rise in inventory we saw throughout the month of June. The number of homes listed active by Orlando Realtors is up from 6,695 in May to 7,006 last month. Of those 897 or 12.8% are REO, 798 or 11.4% are short sales and 5,311 or 75.8% are equity sales. Although inventory is up, pending sales have dropped a bit to 9,357 from 9,597 in May. Of the homes with contracts pending, 1,119 or 12.0% are REO, 5,385 or 57.6% are short sales and 2,853 or 30.5% are equity sales.
Financed sales did not pick up the slack, and we actually saw a decline in total sales in June compared to May. Overall the number of closed sales dropped 11.6% from 2,945 in May to only 2,603 in June. That number is even down 3.5% from June 2012′s 2,700. Of the total sales last month 501 or 19.2% were REO with a median price of $101,000, 485 or 18.6% were short sales with a median price of $115,000 and 1,617 or 62.1% were equity sales with a median of $192,000. Prices were up $11,000 for REO and almost $9,000 for equity sales, but declined slightly for short sales. The 485 closed short sales accounted for only 9% of the short sales under contract. As I mentioned, cash sales slipped from 1,576 in May to only 1,290 in June accounting for 49.6% of the sales with a median price of $105,000. Financed sales took the lead with 1,313 making up 50.4% of the sales with a median price of $205,000.
Are investors tiring of Orlando? Have they been priced out? Will rising interest rates and higher prices slow demand? It is only one month, and that does not make a trend, but we may already be seeing this bull market slowing.
I think we all know now that “bubbles” can burst in the housing market. Back in 2005-06 our local Realtor association commissioned a white paper from an economist, because of our concern over the rapid increase in unsustainable prices here in Orlando. His conclusion for a worst case scenario was a 5% drop in prices. In my infinite wisdom, I prepared myself for the unthinkable a 10% drop in prices. Reality for Orlando was about a 60% decline in median price.
The differences between then and now have me somewhat less concerned that we will see that type of decline. First, our median price for last month, June 2013, is looking to be just over $150,000. In 2006 the median price peaked around $260,000. This is important, because back in 2006 salaries just did not support prices being that high. At $150,000 prices can be supported by household incomes. Second, easy money played a huge role in both the run up in prices in 2005-06 and the collapse in 2008-11. If you had a pulse and could fog a mirror you qualified for 100% financing back then. Combine that with interest only and negative amortization loans, and anyone could qualify to get in over their head. With no skin in the game, thousands of buyers just walked away. Today, we are into our fourth year with cash purchases outnumbering financed transactions.
This brings me to my third reason why I don’t see a crash coming. A huge number of our sales over the past few years have gone to investors. As prices increase, returns are likely to decline so investor purchases are likely to taper off. We are not likely to see frantic buying coming from investors like we saw coming from scared buyers back in 2005-06. These investors are currently seeing 8%-12% returns on their real estate holdings here. Until the economy really gets humming again, I just don’t see investors pulling out en masse to reinvest in opportunities that will out perform these returns. If that does happen, there will likely be a lot of real owners ready, willing and able to pick up the properties. Finally, this brings me to inventory. We have been running between a two and three month supply for some time now. This is well below the six month supply we consider a balanced market. Anything can happen, but I don’t think we have to be as concerned about a bubble this time.